Losing To The Top Ten - A Familiar Refrain Under James Franklin

Penn State’s defeat to Oregon this past weekend echoes a familiar theme under head coach James Franklin: not surprising, but undeniably disappointing.

Despite Franklin’s success over his 12-year tenure—consistently winning 9 to 10 games and recruiting at a high level—his teams have struggled in marquee matchups. In fact, Penn State has not secured a victory against a top-10 opponent since 2016. This recurring shortfall raises a critical question: Why are the Nittany Lions unable to win big games?

Let’s explore some of the underlying issues contributing to this pattern.

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Playing to Win vs. Playing Not to Lose

A logical starting point is Franklin’s overall game strategy. There is a distinct difference between playing to win and playing not to lose. The first half of the Oregon game suggested the latter. While a cautious approach may seem justified against elite competition, it rarely yields success. This conservative mindset often results in stalled drives and missed opportunities—particularly in the second half.

Quarterback performance under Franklin has also been a concern in high-stakes contests. Whether it’s Drew Allar, Trace McSorley, or Sean Clifford, Penn State quarterbacks have consistently struggled against top-tier defenses. The offense frequently lacks explosiveness, making it difficult to keep pace in shootouts. Too often, the play-calling relies on short passes and predictable runs—schemes that elite defenses can easily neutralize.

Lack of In-Game Adjustments

One of the defining traits of elite coaches, such as Ohio State’s Ryan Day, is the ability to make effective halftime adjustments (though Michigan seems to be his Achilles’ heel). Franklin’s teams, by contrast, often appear rigid and unresponsive when opponents shift tactics—a flaw that becomes glaring in tightly contested games.

Against Oregon, Penn State opened with a run-heavy offense, leaning on Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton, complemented by short-yardage passing. Initially effective, Oregon’s defense quickly adapted by stacking the box and pressing receivers, daring Allar to throw deep.

Rather than countering with play-action, vertical routes, or exploiting mismatches with tight ends, Franklin and his offensive coordinator remained committed to the original game plan. The result? Multiple stalled drives, predictable third-down calls, and a glaring absence of explosive plays.

This scenario has played out before—against Ohio State in 2022 and Michigan in 2023—where Penn State started strong but failed to evolve as the game progressed.

Psychological Barriers

Arguably, the most significant issue may be psychological. This goes beyond conservative play-calling; it speaks to a broader mindset. There’s a growing perception that Penn State under Franklin is perpetually on the cusp of greatness—dominant against lesser opponents but unable to break through against elite competition.

To change this narrative, Franklin must instill a belief that his team can beat anyone, anywhere, on any given Saturday. That shift in mentality is essential if the Nittany Lions are to become true contenders.

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In truth, there are many ways to explain why Franklin’s teams have faltered against top-tier opponents. With a talented roster and high expectations, the central question remains: Can Penn State finally break through and win the games that matter most?

Until they do, the Nittany Lions will remain a team full of promise—yet still searching for a signature win.