Analyzing Steelers Third-Round Pick Drew Allar - A Tale of Two Quarterbacks

Prologue

Drafting is never an exact science, but every so often a prospect comes along who forces a closer look at how we evaluate talent and projection. Penn State quarterback Drew Allar is one of those players. He’s easily one of the most debated Steelers draft picks in recent years—not because of what he’s already shown, but because of how differently people see his long‑term ceiling. That kind of divide calls for a different approach. This study aims to cut through the noise and focus on what the film actually says about Allar’s development, giving us a clearer picture of the quarterback he can grow into rather than the one he used to be.

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Drew Allar’s story begins in Medina, Ohio, where football and family shaped his childhood.

Growing up, Allar idolized his older cousin, Blake Bartchak. Bartchak often came to watch him play youth football, and Allar viewed him as a role model. In 2012, tragedy struck when Bartchak died in an accident. It was the kind of loss that could have derailed a young athlete, but Allar instead used it as motivation to push himself forward.

At Medina High School, Allar quickly became a star. As a senior in 2021, he earned Ohio Prep Sportswriters Association Mr. Football, State Offensive Player of the Year, MaxPreps Ohio Player of the Year, and first‑team All‑State honors in Division I. That season, he threw for 2,962 yards and 26 touchdowns while adding two more scores on the ground. He was named Ohio Player of the Year after leading the Battling Bees to an undefeated regular season and a Greater Cleveland Conference Championship. By the time he graduated, Allar held numerous county and school records for passing yards and touchdowns. As the nation’s top quarterback prospect, he enrolled early at Penn State in January 2022.

As a true freshman backup, Allar finished with 344 passing yards, 35 completions, and four touchdowns across 10 games. The following season, he emerged as one of the Big Ten’s top quarterbacks. He earned honorable mention All‑Big Ten honors from both coaches and media, finishing with 2,631 yards, 233 completions, and 25 touchdowns against just two interceptions. He followed that strong sophomore campaign with an even bigger junior year, throwing for 3,327 yards, 262 completions, and 24 touchdowns. He ranked third in the conference in passing yards and fourth in passing touchdowns, QBR (77.7), and passing efficiency (153.5), once again earning All‑Big Ten honorable mention.

With NFL Draft buzz building heading into his senior year, expectations were high. Instead, the season proved frustrating. Allar and the Nittany Lions offense struggled through the first half of the year, and after a disappointing loss to Oregon, Allar suffered a season‑ending ankle injury against Northwestern. NCAA regulations prevented him from obtaining a medical redshirt, effectively ending his college career. He finished fourth in program history in passing yards (7,402) and completions (633), and he set Penn State records for completion percentage (63.2) and interception percentage (1.3).

For this film study, the goal is clarity. We’re splitting the evaluation into two buckets—the good and the bad—to get a clean picture of who Allar was on tape and what traits can carry forward.

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👍The Good

Arm Talent -

Allar’s tape tells the truth: the quarterback has rare arm talent. Forget the showcase throws from the Combine or his Pro Day—his real résumé is on Saturdays. Over and over, he’s put his arm strength, velocity, and multi-angular throws on display. And the trait shows up most when the pocket collapses and he's under duress.

The best example comes from the 2024 Big Ten Championship against Oregon, arguably one of the finest outings of his college career.

On a critical 4th down, the Ducks’ edge rusher wins clean off the right side, beating the tackle and getting a handful of Allar’s jersey as he tries to climb out of the pressure. He keeps his eyes downfield, resets his base as much as the moment allows, and identifies a window in the end zone. While being dragged down, he executes a layered throw between two Oregon defenders for the touchdown. That’s not scheme. That’s not luck. That’s a quarterback with the arm talent and poise to create a play that simply can’t be coached. (Note, we didn't show his pass to Tyler Warren earlier in the contest).

Workable Mobility -

Quarterbacks with functional mobility have become increasingly valuable at the NFL level over the past decade. While Drew Allar isn’t the same caliber of athlete as someone like North Dakota State’s Cole Payton, his movement skills still register as a clear positive. He’s effective on designed keepers and can escape when the pocket compresses. His mobility shows up most consistently when throwing off-platform—he has the arm strength to torque his hips on the move and drive the ball without needing a perfectly set base.

Effortless Big Throws -

For all that has been said about Drew Allar, what can’t be denied is that he’s one of the most naturally gifted throwers in this year’s class. His arm talent is evident on first watch—easy velocity, the ability to drive the ball without a perfect base, and enough power to hit every area of the field. When he’s given time in the pocket, he routinely delivers NFL‑level throws with the velocity and placement you expect from a high‑end prospect.

One of the clearest examples of Allar’s pure throwing talent comes on his 38‑yard touchdown to Omari Evans in the 2024 Fiesta Bowl. The operation is smooth from start to finish—his base is calm, the motion is fluid, and the ball comes out of his hand with effortless pace. The throw itself is high‑level: ideal arc, precise trajectory, and placement that leads Evans into space with no defender able to make a play on it. This is Allar at his best, showcasing the combination of touch and velocity that defines his ceiling as a passer.

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👎The Bad

Decision making -

Evaluating this part of Allar’s game requires looking at several layers. He shows signs of being a quick processor and generally looks comfortable identifying coverages. But his decision‑making is inconsistent. When he gets stuck in his progression or isn’t confident in what he’s seeing, he has a tendency to panic—leaving the pocket early or forcing throws that aren’t there, which has led to avoidable turnovers.

Some of that stems from the offensive environment. Coordinator Andy Kotelnicki installed an RPO‑heavy system designed to highlight Allar’s strengths, but it also leaned heavily on quarterback runs and had questionable pass-game concepts. Outside of tight end Tyler Warren, he didn’t consistently have high‑end receiving talent, which somewhat contributed to timing and trust issues.

A clear example comes against Notre Dame. Allar commits a cardinal mistake: throwing late over the middle. With an Irish linebacker shooting past guard Olaivavega Ioane immediately after the snap, the pocket collapses fast. The correct play is to eat the sack. Instead, he tries to salvage the down and fires an ill‑advised ball that’s intercepted.

The alternate angle shows the root problem: indecisiveness. Warren is open on the out route—an easy, safe completion. Allar bypasses it, likely hoping a deeper option would uncover later in the progression.

By the time he realizes it won’t, he’s already under duress and drifting out of structure. This is his biggest current weakness, but it’s also one that can be corrected with coaching, a cleaner system, and more reps in a pro‑style progression environment.

Inconsistent accuracy -

The reality with Drew Allar is straightforward: when the tempo speeds up, his mechanics and decision‑making often unravel. Even on snaps where he’s afforded a clean pocket, his ball placement can fluctuate—and not in a way that helps the offense. Much of that inconsistency stems from his footwork (which we’ll break down next), but some of it comes from a lack of poise as the play develops.

Take the Nevada example. Penn State has a simple backside skinny post open, and it should be an easy, in‑stride throw. Instead of driving the ball into a catch‑and‑run window, Allar leaves it high and behind the receiver. That forces an abrupt adjustment with defenders closing in, and the play ends in a drop.

On the replay, the protection is more than adequate. The only real stressor is the Wolfpack edge rusher who beats the left tackle late in the rep. That flash of pressure appears to speed up Allar’s internal clock, and—as we’ve seen repeatedly—when he feels heat, even perceived heat, the accuracy tends to go with it.

Bad Footwook -

On film, there’s a direct link between Drew Allar’s inconsistent footwork and his struggles working through full‑field progressions. When he knows exactly where he wants to go with the football, everything syncs up: he’s calm in the pocket, his base is stable, and his mechanics look clean. You see him plant that back foot, rotate his hips, and fire in one smooth, connected motion.

But the moment uncertainty enters the picture—when he has to move from read one to the next—those fundamentals start to drift. The feet get noisy, the base narrows, and the throwing sequence loses its rhythm. This is especially the case when he is being pressured - he'll often vacate the pocket premature and move with questionable purpose.

In the first sequence, his first read — the hook route settling behind the zone linebacker — is there immediately. He sees it, trusts it, and keeps his base strong. His feet stay planted, his shoulders stay quiet, and he delivers a smooth, confident ball for a first down. That’s textbook: identify the window, keep the mechanics clean, and rip it.

The second sequence is where things start to slip. His first read — the out route — flashes open, but he hesitates. He comes off it late, and even though his second read, the tight end, is also available, the hesitation snowballs. His footwork gets choppy, his base narrows, and the pocket begins to feel chaotic. He eventually bails and floats a lazy throw that ends up getting dropped.

These are the situations where Allar has to stay composed. If the first read isn’t clean, he needs to keep his feet steady, stay disciplined in the pocket, and work through his progressions without letting the moment speed him up. The tools are there — the consistency comes from trusting his reads and maintaining his mechanics snap after snap.

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When you strip it all down, Drew Allar is a classic projection quarterback—big tools, real flashes, and clear areas that still need refinement. The arm talent is undeniable, the mobility is workable, and the high‑end throws show exactly why the Steelers were willing to bet on him. The inconsistencies are just as real, but they’re the kind that typically improve with coaching, reps, and a stable system.

What Pittsburgh has now is a young passer with the physical traits to become a potential starter (or solid QB2) and the developmental runway to get there. If he cleans up the footwork, speeds up the processing, and learns to trust what he sees, the ceiling is absolutely worth the investment. The tape doesn’t promise a finished product—it promises a quarterback worth developing. And for a franchise looking toward the future, that’s more than enough reason to believe this pick could pay off.